My 2015 Playoff Predictions

With the wild card play-in games complete now we can look at the actual playoff picture. And while I believe it’s anyone’s game and that any team can get hot and stay hot here’s what I see:

Blue Jays over Rangers in 5 games

Royals over Astros in 4 games

Cardinals over Cubs in 4 games

Dodgers over Mets in 3 games

 

Royals over Blue Jays in 6 games

Dodgers over Cardinals in 7 games.

 

Royals over Dodgers in 7 games

 

So, yes, I am staying on the same Kansas City Royals’ bandwagon that I joined last year. The Royals season ended last year a mere 90 feet from tying game 7 of the World Series and they have just gotten better. I do believe this is their year. Then again, I had the Yankees winning the AL East in July.

 

Play ball!!!

The Continuing Search for Consistency

The Yankees return home after a 5-4 road trip which ended on a positive note by taking 2 of 3 from the St. Louis Cardinals. The 2014 New York Yankees continue to be the ultimate Jekyl and Hyde team, showing flashes of brilliance followed by streaks of mediocrity. And news of Mark Teixeira having issues with his surgically repaired right wrist is anything but promising.

The Yankees are still contending for the AL East though the super slugging Toronto Blue Jays are making a run having just won 9 of 10 and only being a year behind everyone’s predictions of contention. And do not count out the Sawx who have just won four in row and seem to have figured out what was ailing them.

As for the Yankees, there is still a lot to be hopeful for. Jacoby Ellsbury seems to have snapped out his early May funk, going 5 for 12 in the series against the Cards. Brett Gardner continues to be a solid presence in the leadoff spot and providing excellent defense in LF. The Captain is continuing his farewell tour hovering around the .270 mark. David Phelps and Chase Whitley have proven useful in their stop-gap roles as starting pitchers. And Dellin Betances is getting All-Star consideration and displaying shades of Mo circa 1996 in his multiple inning relief role, even though Joe Girardi has expressed concern about overuse. In the meantime, Betances has 51 Ks in 30 and 1/3 innings of work. The second coming of Mo, indeed.

This weekend sees the Yankees face the Minnesota Twins, who are surprising many by simply playing .500 ball. The Yankees also get to face Phil Hughes for the first time. Personally, I liked Hughes and thought he got kind of a bad rep but I do hope he returns to Yankee Stadium-form by allowing long ball after long ball.

An Early Season Turning Point

Funny how things can change in an inning. Saturday, the day after David Robertson blew his first save of the season, the Yankees were an out away from dropping 3 of 4 to the Chicago White Sox and possibly starting a path towards the bottom of the AL East. But a two-out three-run rally, capped by another Brian McCann clutch hit, granted the Yanks extra innings where Jacoby Ellsbury provided his biggest hit in pinstripes so far. Ellsbury homered in the top of the 10th to the give the Yankees a lead that David Robertson was able to preserve without issue.

Is it possible everything has changed and all because of one inning of baseball? Anything is possible. Could have just been a fluke or the Yankees were due but this Yankee fan will take what he can get this year, and any year. Saturday’s comeback was followed by Sunday’s blast from the past. After being honored in pre-game ceremonies, The Captain gave the crowd and Yankee fans alike a reminder of what the game has been privileged to witness for twenty years by going 4 for 5 with 2 RBIs and hitting his first triple in three years. Not saying that said Turning Point will chiefly involve Derek Jeter returning to 2012 form but anything is possible and very welcome.

In other good news, Masahiro Tanaka shook off his first loss of the season and backed up The Captain’s effort with 6 plus solid innings. Throw in David Phelps and Vidal Nuno’s recent strong 7-inning efforts and the starting pitching rotation may finally be developing some depth. The bullpen of Betances, Warren, Thornton, and D-Rob (my first attempt at a nickname for David Robertson) is proving to best one of the game’s best, though concerns of overuse may soon be in play.

The Yankees sit at 26-23 and are still in the hunt for the AL East, despite a super-hot Blue Jay squad that has won 9 of 10 and looking like the 2013 team that everyone saw winning it all. Some early separation has the Rays and the very lowly Sawx falling to the back of the pack. The Boston Red Sox in particular have been the definition of struggling, having now dropped 10 games in a row and playing as if Bobby V. is still on the payroll. Up next, the Yankees have three games against the perennial contending St. Louis Cardinals and three against the surprising Minnesota Twins. Hoping this Turning Point turns into a winning streak.

No Predictions, Just Feelings

With the US based regular season about to begin thought it would be a good time to take a look at what the 2014 season might have to offer. Predictions are starting to roll in and thankfully no one is being particularly bold like when most picked the Blue Jays to win it all last year. As for me, here’s just an outline of how I can see the season playing out, and would kinda like it to:

AL East – Boston Red Sox
AL Central – Kansas City Royals
AL West – Oakland A’s

Wildcard #1 – Tampa Bay Rays
Wildcard #2 – New York Yankees

NL East – Washington Nationals
NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers

Wildcard #1 – Atlanta Braves
Wildcard #2 – Pittsburgh Pirates

Not too many surprises except that I see the Royals winning the AL Central. I think the Tigers postseason run ends this year. They had their chances the past few seasons but the loss of the Prince Fielder and Doug Fister, not to mention the rash of injuries that has just begun, will allow the upstart Royals to take the division. Let the Tiger hate mail begin.

In the end, I see the Dodgers beating the A’s in the World Series. No idea if any of this will come true but as with any baseball season anything is possible. As always, I and everybody else will have a much better sense 40 games in. Can’t wait!

Masahiro Tanaka and Desperate Times in the Bronx

So much for that plan to be under $189 million in payroll? I guess as a Yankee fan I shouldn’t be THAT surprised. I thought it might be nice to see a Yankee organization that tried to learn the lessons of recent World Series winners like the Cardinals, Giants, and rival Sawx. But apparently a year without making the playoffs in the Steinbrenner Era is a mortal, not venial, sin.

The signing of Masahiro Tanaka is another patented Yankee move that says “Playoffs or Bust.” Obviously, there is no way to tell if Tanaka is worth the money but in the Steinbrenner Era you spend money to make money and to show your fanbase your commitment. Personally, I would have liked to see the Yankees try to re-build and maybe apply the tactics that recent successful teams have utilized like the Red Sox and A’s. But, this is New York, and these are the Yankees: no time for rational thought. This may work out or this might be the biggest overreaction since Joe Pesci killed Spider in “Goodfellas.”

On the brightside, Tanaka provides a solid fourth member to the rotation along side Sabathia, Kuroda, and Nova. No word yet on who will take the fifth slot. The Yankees do have options and some flexibility with David Phelps, Vidal Nuno, and Adam Warren. Plus, at some point Michael Pineda has to take the mound, although I am starting to wonder if “Pineda” is Spanish for “Pavano.”

In this age of baseball, it is impossible to make it through a season with a five man rotation, and at least signing Tanaka gives the Yankees a little breathing room, albeit expensive breathing room. Additionally, Tanaka will have countrymen company thanks to Hiroki Kuroda and Ichiro Suzuki (if he makes it to the opening day roster).

I am still not sold on the options at 2B and 3B but the Yankees as is should be as good as they were last year and make another run at the playoffs. And if they don’t make the playoffs then you can expect some seriously desperate moves, like “Sarah Palin as running mate” desperate.

Ellsbury in the Bronx

I did not see this one coming. Did anyone? I would have to say this ranks right up there with the biggest surprises in my lifetime which includes Congressman Sonny Bono and eight seasons of “Walker, Texas Ranger.”

So much for the Yankees trying to lower the payroll. Or maybe this was a statement to Robinson Cano that he doesn’t get to put a stranglehold on the Yankee economy. I am concerned about the length and amount of money in the deal for Jacoby Ellsbury, considering his health over the last few years but it’s still hard to not be excited. The signing also means the end of the Curtis Granderson era in the Bronx. That concerns me as well since Granderson is a highly regarded player around baseball who’s only sin seems to be getting hit by two pitches last season which limited him to just sixty-one games. On the other hand, the Yankee outfield now has Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Ichiro Suzuki, not mention 4th outfielder/DH Alfonso Soriano. I am having images of the Cardinals of the 1980’s and “Whitey Ball.” Beware American League catchers.

Ellsbury’s signing also adds another chapter to the growing history of Red Sox who have become Yankees. From Babe Ruth to Sparky Lyle to Luis Tiant to Wade Boggs to Roger Clemens to Johnny Damon and so on. There hasn’t been a lot of movement in the opposite direction with the most notable Yankees to Sawx changes made by Mike Torrez and David Cone. Is it really a sign of betrayal and why is it seemingly one-sided from Boston to New York? Sox Nation can complain all they want about the “Evil Empire” but keep in mind that in addition to the $100,000 that Harry Frazee got for Babe Ruth he was also happy to be done with the Babe’s hard drinking and partying, which seemed less of a distraction in New York. Additionally, free agents like Boggs and Clemens were discarded by Sox management who deemed them over the hill. I only hope Ellsbury can prove to be more like Johnny Damon and a lot less like Kevin Youkilis.

I don’t know what the remainder of the Yankee off-season will yield, but they have my attention, as well as the rest of the league. We will see.

The 2013 World Champion Boston Red Sox: THE Official F-U to Bobby V. by Jose Guzman, Jr.

It’s been a week since the Boston Red Sox defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2013 World Series and the world didn’t end, even for a Yankee fan like me. The Red Sox deserved it. They out-hit the Cards, out-pitched the Cards, and out-played the Cards, except when it came to throwing over to third base. The Red Sox are the champs and the city of Boston couldn’t be happier.

It’s also hard to hate the 2013 Red Sox. The team has a roster full of likable guys. Whether its grinders like Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury or free agent finds like Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino or big game pitchers like Jon Lester and John Lackey, the Red Sox squad for 2013 is full of good stories led by David Ortiz’s bat and John Farrell’s calming presence.

On top of which, the 2013 Boston Red Sox are a referendum on the managerial ability of Bobby V. True, Bobby V. didn’t get the chance to manage THIS Red Sox team but he wouldn’t have been able to. Bobby V. managing the Red Sox makes about as much sense as Andrew “Dice” Clay running a women’s studies seminar or Bernie Madoff teaching a busniess ethics class. Then again, maybe Bobby V. has discovered his niche. Maybe MLB teams should pay heed and see what happened in Boston and realize Bobby V. is the key to a championship team. Hire Bobby V., let him tear your team to shreds, bring in the right manager, and win the following season. That could be a winning strategy, just keep him away from the Yankees, we’re just fine.

A lot has been made about series MVP David Ortiz and just how good he is, as well as his past possible indiscretions. In this day and age, it is very hard to not be cynical and question his accomplishments, as well as any successful baseball player. But I am willing to give Big Papi the benefit of the doubt, as much as it pains my Yankee fan core. And to all of the sabermetric eggheads who claim there is no such thing as “clutch hitting,” I have two words for you: David “Friggin’ Ortiz. I’m not ready to proclaim him the new “Mr. October,” since there’s only one “Mr. October.” But, David Ortiz is in the conversation. I think recently deceased Bum Phillips said it best when he was describing NFL Hall of Famer Earl Campbell by saying, “I’m not sure if he’s at the head of the class, but it wouldn’t take long to call role.”

And hopefully, the 2013 Boston Red Sox have set the blueprint for other teams to follow. Sure, it’s nice to have a $150 million-plus payroll. But it also helps if you spend the money on the right people. Did the Sox get lucky with Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, and Mike Napoli? Sure. But baseball and life are all about putting yourself into a position where luck will help. In that regard, the Red Sox were lucky to have Bobby V. when they did, and smart enough to cut bait when they did.

So, congratulations to the 2013 World Champion Boston Red Sox and Sox Nation. I am not looking forward to the impending era of Yankee futility. I just pray you stay classy. It suits you.

A Yankee Fan’s Growing Respect for the Sawx by Jose Guzman, Jr.

I don’t know how this happened. I really don’t. I was raised better, or so I thought. I am a lifelong Yankee fan. Why do I find myself rooting for the enemy? Well, suffice to say, I am a different kind of Yankee fan. I am an enlightened Yankee fan. I am a Yankee fan who has learned that a good rivalry is based on hatred but a great rivalry is based on respect.

I guess this new way of thought began in 2004. There the Yankees were, up 3-0 in the ALCS ready to knock the hated Red Sox out of the playoffs, like they did in 1999 and 2003. It was just another day for a Yankee fan like me. Then, Dave Roberts stole second, Bill Mueller singled through Mariano Rivera’s five hole, and David Ortiz began his legend with an extra inning home run to force a game five. Then the next night came, and more heroics from the man who came to be known as “Big Papi.” And then came Curt Schilling and his bloody sock and the tide could not be stopped.

The entire time this was happening, I didn’t rant or rebel, it’s as if I could see the car accident of a collapse coming and had no power to turn the wheel. I also came to the realization that considering the Red Sox infamous history of brutal losses and collapses, this was the only way the “Curse of the Bambino” could be broken. It was fate and it was fitting.

And while the Red Sox had their fair share of big mouth louts like Curt Schilling and Kevin Millar, it was hard to hate players like Johnny Damon, Jason Varitek, and first year manager Terry Francona, who was an ambassador for Red Sox Nation handling every aspect of his job with tact and dignity. The hated Red Sox beat my Yankees and they deserved to. Sweeping the Cardinals in the 2004 World Series was just an afterthought.

A few years passed and the Yankees continued to age and stumble and I fell in love with a woman who was a Red Sox fan. It was hard to not believe that God had a sense of humor when he put the two of us together. In the meantime, the Red Sox put it together for another World Series title in 2007. The fact that I was still willing to propose to my Red Sox loving girlfriend the ensuing Christmas was just a sign of my newfound respect.

A few more years passed, and I was happy to see the Yankees return to World Series winning form in 2009. Then came the 2011 Red Sox collapse, which you would think a Yankee fan would enjoy, but I didn’t. I felt nothing but empathy for the Red Sox as they descended into a losing funk fueled by chicken and beer. I also felt disgusted when Terry Francona became the scapegoat and was compelled to leave. Terry Francona was an easy guy to like and even easier to respect.

And then the nightmare continued with the hiring of Bobby Valentine. Again, you would think I would take glee in a 2012 campaign that saw the Red Sox have their worst season in almost forty years, but I couldn’t. It was just too sad. That and the fact that Bobby V. acted as someone without an ounce of respect for the team he had the honor to lead and the players in his charge. It was like watching a spoiled rich kid whose parents buy him with a Porsche who then proceeds to wreck it and just walk away unharmed without any sense of the consequences.

So, in this year I can welcome the Red Sox winning it all. First, it would continue to burn at the soul of Bobby V., if he has one, seeing the opportunity he missed out on. Second, I think it would be an amazing tribute to the city of Boston in the aftermath of the tragedy that befell this year’s marathon. I know nothing can take away the pain of the family amd friends who lost loved ones or the many survivors who are learning to live with the physical and emotional damage caused by the bombing, but if a Red Sox championship can bring a little joy than what can I say but, “Go Sawx!” It’s a time like this when sports are a necessary diversion and give us something we can believe in.

In return for my “fandom,” I only ask one favor of Red Sox Nation: be kind. I am fairly sure I am about to watch a Yankee decline that will make the 2012 Red Sox look like a fairy tale. The Yankee heroes of my youth are just getting older, and very quickly leaving the field. And Yankee management is learning the pain of an overblown payroll and underperforming superstars. So, be kind, Red Sox Nation. At least let me leave the room before you begin your chant of “Yankees Suck.” I will already know.

Predictable Playoffs by Jose Guzman, Jr.

The divisional round is over and I am 4/4. So, what did we learn? The Dodgers are not a flash in the pan, the Red Sox are for real, the Cardinals continue to be formidable in elimination games, and the real Justin Verlander is finally emerging – too bad he won’t be available until game three of the ALCS.

My predictions stay the same, with the Dodgers beating the Cards in seven and the Sawx besting the Tigers in six. Now, if the Sawx want to appease devastated Yankee fans and just sweep the Tigers, that would be greeeaaaatt…..

As a Yankee fan I am still disappointed to not see a playoff run. But as a baseball fan I am very excited to see the four best teams left standing in the LCS round. I expect to see great match-ups and memorable games. And each team has a great story:

Daniel Nava of the Red Sox spent the last few years being called up and sent down, and finally gets a chance to solidify his role as the everyday RF. I look forward to Nava making the best of this opportunity.

Matt Adams of the Cardinals was asked to fill the shoes of Allen Craig and has responded with an outstanding rookie campaign that was punctuated by a mammoth home run in the divisional clinching game.

Jose Iglesias of the Tigers was dealt by the Red Sox and has given the Tigers much needed defense at SS, with almost a highlight every night. No telling if he will be expected to replace Jhonny Peralta, but I am rooting for him.

Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers is on the cusp of a record breaking contract, especially after his starts against the Braves. And now, Kershaw has the national stage to justify the comparisons to Dodger legend Sandy Koufax, as well as building his own legend.

There’s plenty of good baseball left, and it’s a great time to be following the game. Enjoy!

A Mostly Unbiased Playoff Prediction by Jose Guzman, Jr.

With the wild card games decided and the actual playoffs ready to begin, I thought I would give predicting a shot. So, here’s my playoff picture:

Red Sox over the Rays in 4 games

Tigers over the A’s in 4 games

Dodgers over the Braves in 3 games

Cardinals over the Pitates in 5 games

Red Sox over the Tigers in 6 games

Dodgers over the Cardinals in 7 games

Red Sox over the Dodgers in 6 games

As much as it pains me to say it, I’ve got the Sawx winning it all. The Red Sox have the best offense in baseball along with the 1-2 punch of Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester, not to mention the motivation of sticking it to Bobby V. Even a Yankee fan like me can live with that, even if I’m pulling for the Dodgers all the way.